Tinubu Made 8 Big Promises to Nigerians. Three Years Later, Here Is the Honest Scorecard.

Tinubu Made 8 Big Promises to Nigerians. Three Years Later, Here Is the Honest Scorecard.

On May 29, 2023, Bola Ahmed Tinubu stood at Eagle Square, took the oath of office, and in one of his first sentences as president removed the fuel subsidy. No warning, no transition plan, no buffer for the poor. Just gone.

That was day one. Three years later, he is asking Nigerians to give him another term. Before that conversation goes any further, it is worth going back to what he actually promised, one by one, and comparing it to what happened.

Promise 1: Steady Electricity or No Second Term

This is the most quoted promise of his entire campaign. He said it clearly, on camera: "If I do not provide steady electricity in my first four years, do not vote for me for a second term."

What happened: The national grid collapsed 12 times in 2025. It collapsed twice in January 2026 alone, both within days of each other. In 2026, the World Bank cancelled N717.7 billion in electricity loans after the government missed every single reform benchmark attached to the funding. Nigeria still generates between 3,500 and 5,000 megawatts for over 200 million people. In some parts of the country, there has been no power for four months. One of the worst outages left 17 northern states in darkness for nearly two weeks after bandits attacked a transmission line.

Electricity tariffs have jumped by 240% since 2023. The lights are not on. The government is now reportedly planning to disconnect Aso Rock from the national grid entirely and put it on solar.

Verdict: Broken. By his own standard, he should not be asking for a second term.

Promise 2: End Poverty and Create Decent Jobs for Youth

From his manifesto: he promised to build a Nigeria where "sufficient jobs with decent wages create a better life" and to "break all shackles of poverty and hunger."

What happened: Nigeria had a 56% poverty rate when Tinubu took office in 2023. By 2025, the World Bank put that number at 63%, meaning roughly 20 million more Nigerians fell into poverty during his first two years. The price of a kilo of rice has nearly quadrupled since May 2023. Fuel went from N185 per litre to above N1,000. Wages stayed largely flat.

There is GDP growth, 3.4% in Q1 2026. The stock market All-Share Index rose from 53,000 in 2023 to 250,000 in 2026. These are real macroeconomic improvements. They are not felt in Oshodi or Sabon Gari where people are calculating whether their salary lasts to the end of the month.

Verdict: Broken on the ground level where it matters most.

Promise 3: End Banditry, Kidnapping and Insecurity

His manifesto promised to "establish a bold and assertive national security architecture to obliterate terror, kidnapping, banditry, and all forms of violent extremism."

What happened: On May 15, 2026, bandits stormed three schools in Oyo State in broad daylight and took over 40 children and teachers, some as young as two years old. One teacher, Michael Oyedokun, was beheaded on camera. That same day, Boko Haram took 42 more children from a school in Borno. Eighty-eight children were in captivity on Children's Day.

Between January and November 2025, over 400 people, mostly schoolchildren, were kidnapped in North-Central Nigeria alone. In November 2025, 315 students were taken from a school in Niger State. Reports indicate the government paid approximately N2 billion in ransom, a policy that security experts say directly funds the next abduction.

Since 2014, over 1,600 schoolchildren have been kidnapped in Nigeria. The number is climbing, not falling.

Verdict: Broken. Completely.

Promise 4: Remove Fuel Subsidy and Redirect Savings to the People

He did remove the subsidy. That part he kept. He argued it was costing N18.4 billion daily and bleeding the treasury dry.

What happened to the savings: Human Rights Watch reported more than a year after the removal that there was zero transparency about how much was saved or how it was being used. What Nigerians saw instead was the purchase of a new presidential jet and government plans for a luxury yacht, both of which sparked public outrage while ordinary Nigerians queued for petrol at N900 to N1,000 per litre.

The forex rate went from N460 per dollar to over N1,500 before stabilising. The exchange rate gap between official and parallel markets, to be fair, has narrowed significantly to N11 per dollar as of May 2026, from N305 in 2023. Foreign reserves hit $50 billion in March 2026, the highest in 13 years. Investor confidence has genuinely improved.

But none of that cushioned the immediate blow to 63% of Nigerians already living in poverty when petrol tripled overnight.

Verdict: Partially kept on the reform itself. Not kept on the redistribution promise.

Promise 5: Free WAEC for All Nigerian Students

He promised free West African Examination Council fees for every Nigerian student.

What happened: The government launched the Student Loan Act and created NELFUND, signing it just 14 days after taking office. By April 2026, the fund claims to have disbursed N242.4 billion to over 1.3 million students.

The problem is what it actually means. Studying medicine at a federal university like UNILAG now costs over N1 million in mandatory fees, fees that shot up under this same administration after it removed subsidies from education. A student who borrows the maximum amount and receives the N20,000 monthly upkeep allowance graduates with over N2.2 million in debt. With a N70,000 minimum wage, that is almost three years of every single kobo of salary just to pay the government back. And until you do, you cannot access a business loan or mortgage.

Free WAEC specifically? Not widely confirmed as implemented.

Verdict: Mixed. A loan scheme exists but it is not the free access promised, and the education cost crisis it was meant to solve was worsened by the same administration.

Promise 6: Affordable Healthcare, Housing and Basic Services

He promised to make basic healthcare, education, and housing accessible and affordable for all.

What happened: Electricity tariff hikes of 240%. Communication tariff hikes. Fuel prices quadrupled. Rent prices have surged across Lagos, Abuja, and Port Harcourt. The average Nigerian's purchasing power has collapsed under the weight of naira devaluation. There is no significant affordable housing programme that has reshaped the market. Public hospitals remain chronically underfunded.

Verdict: Not delivered.

Promise 7: Grow Oil Production to 2.6 Million Barrels Per Day by 2027

His manifesto specifically targeted 2.6 million barrels per day by 2027 and 4 million by 2030. At the time of the promise, Nigeria was producing below 1 million barrels, having consistently missed its OPEC quota due to oil theft.

What happened: Oil production has improved. Nigeria reached around 1.4 to 1.6 million barrels per day by early 2026, a genuine recovery from the near-collapse of 2022. The administration has worked on pipeline security and brought in new monitoring systems. But 2.6 million by 2027 with less than a year to go looks very unlikely.

Verdict: Partial improvement. Still far from the target.

Promise 8: Minimum Wage and Workers' Welfare

Under pressure in 2024, Tinubu signed an increase in the national minimum wage to N70,000 per month, up from N30,000.

The reality: N70,000 at today's exchange rate and with today's prices is worth less in real purchasing power than N30,000 was in 2019. Petrol costs roughly N1,000 per litre. A bag of rice costs over N80,000 in many markets. Transport fares have multiplied. The increase in nominal wages has been almost entirely wiped out by the inflation his own reforms triggered.

Verdict: Technically kept on paper. Economically meaningless in practice.

What Tinubu Says About All of This

On May 29, 2026, his third anniversary in office, Tinubu addressed the nation. He acknowledged the pain, saying "many Nigerians still struggle with rising costs and economic adjustment" and adding "we do not dismiss these concerns."

He pointed to the stock market gains, GDP growth, rising foreign reserves, and 2,700 kilometres of roads under construction or rehabilitation. He said the economy is "more competitive and better positioned for sustainable growth" than in 2023.

His supporters argue that reforms of this scale take time and that inheriting a broken economy after years of subsidy-fed decay made pain unavoidable. There is a genuine case that some of the macroeconomic foundations being laid now could produce better conditions in five years.

The counterargument is that 63% of your population is in poverty, 88 children are missing from a school raid, the national grid has collapsed 14 times in 18 months, and you are entering an election cycle. The foundation argument is cold comfort when the house is still on fire.

The Bottom Line

Tinubu made specific, measurable promises. Three years in, the electricity is not steady, poverty has deepened, insecurity has worsened, and the savings from subsidy removal have not visibly reached the people who paid the highest price for that reform.

There are genuine economic indicators that point upward, investor confidence, foreign reserves, exchange rate stability. Nigeria's macro picture has stabilised from the edge of collapse it was on in 2022.

But the question Nigerians are being asked to answer in 2027 is not whether the macroeconomics improved. It is whether their lives got better. And for the majority, the honest answer is: not yet.

Tinubu himself said: if the lights are not on, do not vote for him again.

The lights are not on.